Bold opener: Trevor Rogers could be the Orioles’ hidden ace in plain sight, and his surge in 2025 is the reason some fans believe Baltimore already has two front-line pitchers in house. But here’s the twist: whether that breakout holds water in 2026 is where the conversation gets interesting.
Last week, Camden Chat’s Tyler Young argued that the Orioles’ off-season chatter about needing an ace misses the bigger point: the team may already possess one, or perhaps even two, in their rotation. That line of thinking hinges on Rogers’ surprising 2025 performance, which turned a rough 2024 debut into a breakout season that redefined expectations.
In 2025, the left-hander was a revelation, shattering franchise and MLB records en route to a 1.81 ERA across 18 starts. He emerged as the brightest spot on a otherwise disappointing Orioles campaign and is slated to start one of Baltimore’s first two games this season.
What do the projection systems say about Rogers’ future? Not everyone is ready to crown him an ace based on 2025 alone.
- ZiPS projects 25 starts with a 3.95 ERA and 2.1 WAR.
- Steamer projects 26 starts with a 4.20 ERA and 1.9 WAR.
Even the most optimistic Orioles fans shouldn’t expect a return to a 1.81 ERA, and these models foresee a sharp ERA regression, potentially exceeding 200 points. They also predict that Rogers’ value might dip below the 3.3 WAR he accumulated in 2025, even if he makes a few more starts.
It’s important to note that projections aren’t biased or spiteful toward Rogers. They’re cold calculations based on data and history. Rogers’ career before 2025 included ERAs of 5.47, 4.00, and 4.92, and his 2025 numbers, while extraordinary, came in just 18 appearances—a fraction of a full season. So it’s no surprise that emotionless algorithms aren’t forecasting a slam-dunk 2026 for him.
But the real question is: what do you think Rogers is capable of this season? Are you buying a true ace-level rebound, a solid mid-rotation contributor, or something in between? Share your take in the comments and tell us where you stand on his 2026 potential.
